Contents

Return and volatility forecasts, Value at Risk (VaR), Volume

Updated regularly - Last update on 11-May-2012 
 
Return on McDonalds (mcd) stock follows ARMA(0,5)-GARCH(1,1) model (Student-t errors)
Given current McDonalds stock close price of 91.90 the forecast for the next: 
    '1 week'    '2 weeks'    '3 weeks'    '4 weeks'
    '92.06'     '92.21'      '92.09'      '92.19'  

Probability of McDonalds stock close price to increase in the next: 
    '1 week'    '2 weeks'    '3 weeks'    '4 weeks'
    '54.39%'    '52.88%'     '48.06%'     '51.31%' 

Value at Risk (VaR) for $1,000 worth of McDonalds stock at 5 percent probability: 
Lose at most $23.02 in 1 day, $126.11 in 30 days and $218.43 in 90 days

Stock price, return, high and low

Price fundamentals for McDonalds (mcd) stock 
 
McDonalds stock price change in percent over the last: 
    '30 days'     '6 months'    '1 year'      '3 years' 
    '-5.8787%'    '0.6351%'     '17.2493%'    '88.8227%'

Average daily return (continuously compounded) for McDonalds stock over the last: 
    '30 days'     '6 months'    '1 year'     '3 years'
    '-0.3180%'    '-0.0114%'    '0.0686%'    '0.0828%'

OVER THE LAST YEAR:
The minimum McDonalds stock close price of 78.38 was observed on 12-May-2011 
The maximum McDonalds stock close price of 101.03 was observed on 20-Jan-2012 
Current close price of McDonalds (91.90) as a percent of range is equal to 59.69% 
 
The lowest one-day return (i.e. largest price drop for McDonalds stock) 
 of -4.13% was observed on 09-Sep-2011 
The highest one-day return (i.e. largest price increase for McDonalds stock) 
 of 4.58% was observed on 09-Aug-2011 

Technical Analysis: RSI and MACD

RSI readings of McDonalds share greater than 70 are in overbought territory, 
while RSI below 30 is oversold region. RSI 30 to 70 is neutral.
Buy McDonalds stocks when the MACD line crosses up through the signal line.
Sell McDonalds shares when MACD line crosses down through the signal line.

Technical Analysis: Accumulation/Distribution oscillator and Momentum

The Accumulation/Distribution oscillator is a common tool based on the high,
low, opening, and closing prices of McDonalds share for each tradind day.
Momentum calculates the difference between two prices separated by 12 days.

Technical Analysis: Chaikin oscillator and Chaikin volatility

This Chaikin oscillator is computed by subtracting exponential,
moving average of the A/D line of McDonalds stock from the three-period
exponential moving average of the A/D line.
Chaikin volatility is computed from a 10-period exponential moving
average and 10-day difference of McDonalds stock.

Technical Analysis: Williams %R and On-Balance volume

McDonalds equity is considered oversold if Williams R is below -80.
McDonalds share is overbought if Williams R is above -20. 
On-Balance Volume for McDonalds stock adds or subtracts volume to
a total depending on whether McDonalds price moves up or down.

Stock performance compared to Dow Jones Index

Does McDonalds (mcd) stock go together with Dow Jones Index? 
 
Correlation between return on McDonalds stock and Dow Jones Index over the last: 
    '30 days'    '6 months'    '1 year'    '3 years'
    '60.13%'     '52.13%'      '69.98%'    '60.79%' 

Percent of time when return on McDonalds stock was higher than on Dow Jones Index 
 over the last: 
    '30 days'    '6 months'    '1 year'    '3 years'
    '40.91%'     '54.33%'      '56.52%'    '52.84%' 

Stock performance compared to GOLD ETF (gld)

Does McDonalds (mcd) stock go together with GOLD ETF? 
 
Correlation between return on McDonalds stock and GOLD ETF over the last: 
    '30 days'    '6 months'    '1 year'    '3 years'
    '49.17%'     '24.61%'      '1.70%'     '8.66%'  

Percent of time when return on McDonalds stock was higher than on GOLD ETF 
 over the last: 
    '30 days'    '6 months'    '1 year'    '3 years'
    '45.45%'     '49.61%'      '48.62%'    '48.08%' 

Stock performance compared to Physical Silver (slv)

Does McDonalds (mcd) stock go together with Physical Silver? 
 
Correlation between return on McDonalds stock and Physical Silver over the last: 
    '30 days'    '6 months'    '1 year'    '3 years'
    '37.06%'     '27.55%'      '11.78%'    '15.79%' 

Percent of time when return on McDonalds stock was higher than on Physical Silver 
 over the last: 
    '30 days'    '6 months'    '1 year'    '3 years'
    '54.55%'     '51.97%'      '49.41%'    '46.37%' 

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